China Launches Commercial Trials for GM Soy, Corn
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By Blake Herzog
Contributor
China is expanding its commercial trial plantings of genetically modified (GM) corn and soybeans as it moves to wider adoption of GM crops to increase production and reduce costs, despite reported skepticism from citizens tied to concern about perceived health risks. Production is expected to ramp up in 2024 and authorization for release into the commercial market in the coming years.
“In 2021, China initiated a pilot program for the cultivation of GM corn and soybean crops,” explained Dr. Piyatida Pukclai, Regional Sales and Regulatory Policy Manager for Knoell. “These pilot projects have demonstrated remarkable performance in terms of pest and herbicide resistance.”
In the past the Chinese government authorized growth of GM varieties of papaya, which is currently grown in the country, and a few other vegetables not currently in production. It does import large quantities of GM corn and soybeans, primarily for livestock consumption or as oilseed. GM varieties have come to dominate China’s cotton industry, representing 95% of total area grown.
The expansion of its pilot program has fueled some alarm internationally about a potential drop in demand, but many analysts say the gap between domestic supply and demand is such that its status as a major importer will continue, though it could shift its purchasing power.
Allister Phillips, Co-Founder of AgbioInvestor, an analytic and consulting firm for crop protection and seeds, said, “I believe that China will continue to be the leading importer of agricultural commodities, however their purchasing focus seems to be moving away from the U.S. to other originations such as Brazil. China authorized corn imports from Brazil in 2022 and has been increasing its Brazilian purchases since. Brazil has been the leading exporter of soybean since 2015 and became the world’s leading corn exporter in 2022.”
51 GM Seed Varieties Approved
On Oct. 17, 2023, the People’s Republic of China’s National Crop Variety Registration Committee (CNCVRC) released a list of 37 GM seed varieties for corn and 14 for soybeans with preliminary approval from the committee. This is the first such list in history, according to a report from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service. The 30-day public comment period on the list ended Nov. 15, 2023. Once the list is finalized, eligible seeds can be cultivated within the authorized production area.
The corn seed varieties include 19 that employ event DBN9936, created by Beijing Da-Bei-Nong Technology Group, and another nine from event Ruifeng 125, developed by Hangzhou Ruifeng Biosciences Co., Ltd and Zhejiang University. The others are rooted in a scattering of other events.
Nine of the soybean varieties are rooted in Zhonghuang 6106, developed by Institute of Crop Sciences, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and the other five utilize DBN9004, also created by Dai-Bei-Nong.
In 2023, the total planting area for the pilot program covered 270,000 hectares (Ha) across 20 counties within the provinces of Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Jilin, Sichuan and Yunnan. This is 0.05% of the total land area devoted to the two crops nationally, about 40 million hectares for corn and 10.5 million hectares for soybeans.
David Li, Marketing Director and Lead Analyst for SPM Biosciences in Beijing, said China is expanding the pilot program because relying upon imports of these GM crops may not keep up with its domestic needs.
“China’s demand for protein due to its large population has prompted it to import GM soybeans and corn from overseas year-round. Corn is primarily used for feed and further processing. Soybeans are mainly used for feed and oilseed consumption,” he said.
“China’s domestic production of corn and soybeans has been slow to rise,” he continued. “It’s corn yield per unit area is only 60% of that of the U.S., at about 6,300 Kg/Ha. China’s soybean yield is only around 1,980 Kg/Ha, lower than the world’s average per unit area. And the cost of production is relatively high. China’s food security will be challenged if it relies solely on imports from overseas.”
Phillips noted China has the world’s largest planting area for corn and fifth largest for soybeans: “However, the yield of these crops is lower than what is achieved in the other leading countries. For example, the U.S. holds the second largest corn area after China and yields 10-11 tons per hectare compared to China’s 6-7 tons/Ha. In soybean, the yield differential is similar to that of corn, Chinese soybean yields are lower than those in the Americas.”
Regulatory Changes
The pilot program is rooted in a policy also adopted in 2021, an “action plan,” which Phillips said “clarified the overall goal of reaching seed industry self-reliance and controllable seed sources.” Perhaps the biggest implication it has for global agribusiness is its prohibition on foreign investment in its agricultural biotechnology sector.
“While the adherence to science-based regulatory processes is commendable, the limited access for international biotech innovators to engage in this research remains a concern,” Pukclai said. “Nonetheless, there is optimism that China’s initiatives to modernize its agricultural sector through biotechnology will ultimately benefit international seed companies as the landscape evolves.”
On the other hand, Phillips said, Chinese companies can bring their GM seeds to the global commercial market but generally lack the presence to do so unless they collaborate with a foreign concern, as with DBN’s partnership with Argentinean seed company Bioceres to develop and sell seeds with its traits DBN4003 and DBN8002 in Argentina.
Input Impacts
Li and Phillips agree wider utilization of GM seeds could lead to considerable shifts in demand on the crop inputs market, from higher to lower-cost herbicides and away from insecticides.
“The herbicide tolerance traits of GM crops are mainly true to glyphosate and glufosinate products. If Chinese farmers start to carry out GM cultivation on a large scale, it is foreseeable that the use of glyphosate and glufosinate will increase significantly. This will also decrease the promotion and application of other selective herbicides in China’s domestic market. In addition, many GM crops are currently characterized by insect resistance. This is not a favorable situation for the sales of insecticides in China,” Li said.
Phillips added that the higher yields of many GM crops are likely a byproduct of their resistance to many agricultural inputs. “GM technology is typically adopted as a cost-saving device. Input traits are termed as such because they are either used in conjunction with or replace the use of conventional crop protection chemicals. However, by moving the crop protection element from foliar sprays to within the seed the grower is theoretically increasing the level of protection of the crop, resulting in less biotic stress and leading to increased yield,” he said.
The Road to Full Adoption
With the expansion of the pilot GM corn and soybean program expected to come into full force in 2024 it’s unclear how much longer it could take for these crops to infiltrate the domestic commercial market.
“It is crucial to highlight that as of the present, China has not granted approval for the commercial cultivation of GMO corn and soybeans,” Pukclai said. “The timeline for commercial availability remains uncertain and contingent on regulatory approvals and planting area determinations.”
Li noted there is a large gap between supply and demand for corn and soybeans domestically: “This is good for the future expansion of GM crops in China. However, Chinese farmers are different from the overseas large farms. Small and medium-sized farmers are the majority in China. Therefore, the expansion of GM crop acreage is likely to be a very long-term process.”
Chinese consumers’ resistance to GM products has evolved over time, reaching a high point in 2012 with 45% regarding them as unsafe for consumption, according to a February 2022 article published in the journal Food Quality and Preference. A more recent online survey conducted by the authors found consumer sentiment was marginally positive toward GM products, with higher acceptance of a hypothetical soybean crop than a hypothetical genetically modified pig.
Li predicts corn, which is mainly a feed crop in China, will dominate GM agriculture there. “Soybean is a major source of vegetable protein for Chinese people. For example, tofu is a very important vegetable protein food in China. The approval of biosafety certificates for GM soybeans will be more cautious.”
But Pukclai said many industry analysts still project GM crops will become a significant presence for China: “Nonetheless, some seed industry representatives posit that the eventual total acreage sown with GM seeds may reach around 53 million hectares.” •